What has broken the dynamics of our economyThen just to see the offer you have selectedThis argument was also rejected by the CSAAlcatelLucent again enters a zone of turbulence But the plot of the episode is secondaryNovartis GSK or other AstraZeneca have doneToday the definition of own funds is not uniform in the UnionA too play on offer is neglected the applicationThe unsuccessful will be many including in the ranks of the French banksFinally the money of the State falls lessThe effects of the announcement of the release under supervision of us mortgage refinancing giant has faded quickly. Yesterday, markets were returning on the movement of the Watch: stock indexes retreated, while the bond was of light colours. On the front of the Exchange, the euro has fallen by 0.14, to 1,4109 dollar. The single currency fell to 1,4047 dollar at the meeting, either its lowest level since October 9, 2007, thus signing his eighth session lower against the greenback.
Several strategists believe the dollar but should continue to appreciate, while the environment remains dominated by risk aversion. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rescue measures to prevent systemic risk, but does not remove a number of concerns: possibility of new bankruptcies and impairment of assets from banks, conditions of access to credit always tense and always bleak economic environment.
"A rebound of appetite for risk in the field of Exchange appears to me to be ephemeral", says Stephen Jen, strategist at Morgan Stanley, which currently sees an opportunity to buy more dollars and to sell Asian currencies (excluding yen), those of other emerging markets, but also the euro, the pound sterling and New Zealand and Australian dollars. In other words, to continue the massive repatriation of capital to the greenback, movement which was triggered by a revised downward the forecast of growth outside the United States and in particular in emerging countries. Morgan Stanley Exchange specialist believes that it is mainly the uncertainty surrounding these economies, rather than the fundamental reality, which weighs on their currencies.
The yen benefits
Already very high, the débouclages of positions in high-yielding currencies have therefore, at this stage, unlikely to be stopped. This situation benefits not only to the dollar, but also the Japanese currency, used as the funding currency in portage strategies (which are to take advantage of the differentials in rates between two currencies). Yesterday, the yen was almost on its most senior two years against the currencies of the antipodes. It is also mounted to 150,86 against 1 euro in the meeting.
The release under supervision of refinancing agencies also has implications for interest rates policy, decisive for the foreign exchange market. "With the intervention of the Treasury, the onus moves from monetary to fiscal policy", noted Michael Klawitter of Dresdner. "This could allow the Fed to raise rates earlier than expected and thereby supporting the dollar."
The short-term indicators in the United States but encourage caution. "The foreign exchange market is the only one to have ignored the clouds are gathering over the US economy and the financial sector," argued the team of Société Générale. In fact, the greenback continued its progress despite a report on the little encouraging employment in August, with unemployment reaching 6.1. The fragility of the labour market and real estate are feared for consumption, engine of the US economy. Concentrated since this summer on the difficulties of the other economies in the world, foreign exchange dealers could again focus their eyes on the United States and their weaknesses. Such a change could prompt players to bet on a monetary easing, as inflationary tensions calm, with the recession of the courts of the black gold.
