It is therefore at least EUR 1 billion of revenue that would be

Pressure mounts in Bercy. The Government must present in Council of Ministers, on 26 September (and not more 24, Nicolas Sarkozy being absent), finance 2009 Bill and, 29, of social security financing Bill. But, if the component expenditure from the State budget was arrested in July, the macroeconomic assumptions to fit the revenue component are the subject of many debates after the review in 2008 growth.

Poor growth

in perspective

With growth which will hardly exceed 1 per cent in 2008, the margins of manoeuvre for 2009 are narrow: given the weakness of activity expected end of the year, should be about 0.4 growth each quarter year next for only 1 of GDP growth in 2009; to reach 1.5, would this time 0.6 every quarter. First evaluations of the services of the Ministry of economy concluded, according to our information, evolution of slightly less than 1 GDP next year. But the Government should choose to accept a range of growth with a point down to at least 1. The Ministry of the Budget indeed plead for a cautious scenario, to be rigorous on the tax measures still under study, it would be difficult, politically, to assume a lower 2008 forecast.

Tax revenues

in Bern

The closure of the 2009 revenue seems more insoluble the 2008 fiscal year will end from forecasts. The "hole" is likely to reach 7 billion euros, calculates Didier Migaud, President (PS) of the commission on the Finances of the National Assembly (read above). The original idea, that of a sum game zero between increases and tax cuts in 2009, may turn into short increases. Side relief: EUR 2 billion as the Tepa law, 500 million of business tax, 336 million for the annual flat tax. Side increases include limits tax niches and the gradual decrease of the exemptions granted to biofuels (about 200 million).

The measures of the Grenelle

environmental debate

The green taxation was the menu of an interdepartmental meeting held yesterday at Matignon. Fifteen Ministers, whose Jean-Louis Borloo and Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Christine Lagarde, Eric Woerth, has worked on the second part of the Bill Grenelle of the environment. The principle of the extension of the unemployed was confirmed, on condition that a strict budgetary balance is respected. Jean-Louis Borloo, responsible for ecology, pleaded for possible made extensions by way of order, but Eric Woerth (public accounts) is very hostile.

Among the new features including discussed an increase in VAT on building materials whose environmental performance would be considered bad. The Ministers also discussed the creation of urban tolls, which seems to have the endorsement of Matignon, with backdrop of negotiations on the recipients of the proceeds of the tolls. The creation of a tax on the capital gain on the sale of land areas have recently connected by a new transit is also under study. For the health environment component, Ministers discussed a ban on advertising, but also sales of laptops for children under six years.

Reduction of the deficit, questioning

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the Eurogroup, said yesterday in "The world" that he "did not believe" that the France public deficit exceeds 3 of GDP this year. However, the 2.5 target should not be achieved. And given the economic context, it is the path of return to the balance displayed by Paris (public deficit reduced to 2 of GDP in 2009 and balance in 2012) that could be changed. The Government has two choices: either it displays it as early as September 24, knowing that he must also submit to Parliament a multiannual programming of the public finance Act. Either he expects December and new formal notification to be sent to Brussels. Return to the balance of social security was promised by 2011: here again, the Executive must decide soon if he maintains this specification.

The remedial action plan

insufficient social security

End of July, all was calé or almost for social security: about 3 billion euros of new income (taxation of mutual, engagement and participation, increase in the retirement contribution) and 2 billion savings on health insurance. This should allow to reduce the deficit of less than EUR 3 billion in 2009 and the whole of the general scheme between 6-7 billion. But this scenario was based on an assumption of wage growth of 4.1 to 4.3. Now obsolete rates. The progression could be closer to 3.5. It is therefore at least EUR 1 billion of revenue that would be. Once arrested framing, the Government will have to decide if it increases the relief effort or if it is merely a small reduction of the deficit in 2009.